Gary Vermaak is an influencer and thought leader in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector. He is an Africa-focused advisor, consultant, and ecosystem developer with a broad background in renewable energy, logistics, mining and mobility. Vermaak holds the positions of Africa Chapter Director & Global Secretariat for the Drone Logistics Ecosystem and Senior Advisor at the Advanced Air Mobility Institute.
Zag Air: Will 2025 be a critical year for eVTOL certification and market viability?
Gary: “2025 is likely to see a lot of “pump and dump” with passenger eVTOL shares, as certification BHAGs are missed in the US and Europe, and the eVTOL bubble slowly deflates.”
Zag Air: What progress will we see for the AAM sector in 2025?
Gary: “In 2025, I anticipate a significant increase in approvals for Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) cargo flights, especially in the US and other major jurisdictions.
“I expect electric aircraft like Beta Technologies’ CX300 and Bye Aerospace’s eFlyer and other eCTOL and eSTOL aircraft to receive type certification. The market for electric aircraft is poised for substantial growth, particularly with four-seater and larger single and twin-engine electric aeroplanes as well as ultralight recreational eVTOL aircraft.
“Considering the composition of the global fleet—around 450,000 general aviation aircraft, many still burning leaded fuel, out of a total of about half-million, alongside ~25,000 helicopters and ~25,000 commercial passenger jets—the potential for electrification in general aviation is immense.”
Zag Air: Do you think hydrogen will overtake battery technology in aviation?
Gary: “Hydrogen has potential, particularly in helicopters, where the weight is centralized in the fuselage. Robinson’s approach to integrating hydrogen into their helicopters seems logical. However, for fixed-wing aircraft, batteries still have an edge. The challenge with hydrogen is creating lighter tanks. Innovations in composite materials could eventually make storage of hydrogen viable for aircraft.”
Zag Air: With potential changes in FAA leadership, do you think the US will speed up the certification process to compete with China?
Gary: “I doubt anyone wants to accelerate the process at the expense of safety, especially after incidents like the Boeing 737 MAX. While there may be discussions about staying competitive with China, it’s unlikely that regulatory bodies like the FAA will compromise on thoroughness. They might adopt a wait-and-see approach, possibly responding to developments in China, but safety will remain the top priority to avoid any potential crises that could undermine public trust.”
Zag Air: What will be the most common application of drones in 2025?
Gary: “Medical deliveries will remain the primary use in 2025, with drones transporting vaccines, medicines and transplant organs. Companies like Zipline and DroneUp will continue to lead the way in drone logistics while companies to watch are Manna Drone Delivery, Skyports and Wing, but logistics giants like FedEx and UPS may start offering integrated drone services to serve customers like Walmart better with integrated (road and air) solutions to the customer.”
Zag Air: Which companies are likely to dominate the eVTOL market?
Gary: “We are likely to see a few dominant players emerge, much like the consolidation seen in the very light jet market of the 2000s.
“In the US, companies like Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation are well-positioned to lead in North America and Europe. Globally, AutoFlight and Aerofugia (formerly Terrafugia) and TCab are strong contenders as the Ehang 216-S is best suited to the air tourism market. I see this market consolidation mirroring patterns in other industries, like smartphones, where a few companies capture most of the market, and this is especially true in aerospace (Cessna and Cirrus in GA, Airbus Helicopter and Robinson in helicopters, Embraer and Bombardier in regional jets and Airbus and Boeing in large passenger jets). The passenger VTOL sector will likely follow this trend, with two or three companies emerging as the dominant players.”
Zag Air: Which companies will have a tough time in 2025?
Gary: “I think the Lilium turbulence doesn’t end here. The additional €200 million Lilium is receiving from Mobile Uplift Corp is unlikely to be able to last the minimum of three years from the long awaited first flight of the 7 seater go-to-market Jet in 2025 to type certification, so we can expect a major fund raising in 2025 by Lilium, in competition with other eVTOL developers globally.”
Zag Air: Do you think Elon Musk will enter the eVTOL market?
Gary: “Elon Musk’s interests seem to align more with high-speed vertical take-off and landing (HSVTOL) solutions, akin to space travel, rather than traditional eVTOLs. His focus appears to be on reducing travel times dramatically between major cities across the globe, using advanced rocket technology from SpaceX.”
